Mayville, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

720
FXUS63 KFGF 230848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
248 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long duration light snow event is expected Saturday night
  through Monday mainly north of highway 200, which may mix at
  times with freezing drizzle Saturday night into Sunday.

- Colder air by Thursday to Saturday next week combines with
  northwest winds for sub zero wind chills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...Synopsis...

The regional radar has been showing echoes moving east-southeast
across the state of North Dakota for the past few hours. This
activity seems to be associated with weak 700mb warm advection
and frontogenesis. As the activity was over the Bismarck area
earlier, it did produce light snow at the surface. However, the
forcing seems to weaken as it continues to push east-southeast
into southeast North Dakota, and have not seen any observations
in this area reporting anything at the surface. Weak 500mb
ridging will slide across the FA today, before the next 500mb
closed low tracks along the Canadian border for Saturday night
through Monday. After this, there could be a few chances for
flurries or a dusting of light snow, but the main story will be
the transition to a colder airmass for the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend.

...Saturday night through Monday...

Have been monitoring this system for a few days now. Several
days ago, probabilities were fairly good for several inches of
snow north of the highway 200 corridor, but best along the
Canadian border. Since then, probabilities have really dropped
across this FA, with the higher ones moving north of Canadian
border into southern Manitoba. Therefore south of the border in
this FA, the event is a much weaker one, but it could still
provide some minor impacts. This would be the chance for the
light snow to mix with freezing drizzle Saturday night through
Sunday (north of the highway 200 corridor). The upper jet seems
to be in a favorable position to produce some lift, with some
weak 850mb warm advection also moving through. The surface flow
through most of this period looks to be light easterly and the
low layers remain saturated. Will have to keep an eye on this
potential.

...Thursday to Saturday...

For the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, there could be a few shots
of flurries or very light snow, but there are no big systems on
the horizon. The main story remains the bout of colder air
moving down into the FA. When adding in steady 10 to 20 mph
northwest winds at times, wind chills drop below zero at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The ceilings should stay VFR for most of the area. Near KDVL
there is an isolated area of ceilings between 1300ft and 1600ft
while everywhere else is VFR. Not quite sure if these lower
clouds will move west with the trough or not. But clouds should
fill in overnight for overcast skies. Winds will become light
and variable as the trough passes through and shift the winds to
the east starting tomorrow afternoon to evening timeframe.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM